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Krylya Sovetov U19 vs Krasnodar U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Krylya Sovetov U19
Krylya Sovetov U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
7/25/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 16Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U1929%
×Draw22%
Krasnodar U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov U19
1.50
Krasnodar U19
1.99

Krasnodar U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 78 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U19
1.72
Krasnodar U19
1.94

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U19
2.04
Krasnodar U19
1.27

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par
Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U19 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U19 or draw
51%
Krylya Sovetov U19 or Krasnodar U19
78%
Draw or Krasnodar U19
71%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+
13%
Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals
78%
Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals
44%
Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals
19%
Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
86%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
59%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.04 · 67 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.72 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more
29%
level
22%
Krasnodar U19 scores more
49%

Krasnodar U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Krylya Sovetov U19 0–4 Krasnodar U19

Krasnodar U19 beat Krylya Sovetov U19 4-0 in Youth Championship on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.