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Krasnodar U19 vs Krylya Sovetov U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Krylya Sovetov U19
Krylya Sovetov U19
5/10/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 9Akademiya FK Krasnodar Pole 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Krasnodar U1963%
×Draw19%
Krylya Sovetov U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.27
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.11

Krasnodar U19 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 68 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.24

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
Krylya Sovetov U19
1.78

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
82%
Krasnodar U19 or Krylya Sovetov U19
81%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov U19
37%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
40%
Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
90%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
66%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
39%
Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals
67%
Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals
30%
Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Krylya Sovetov U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.27

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.24 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
63%
level
19%
Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more
18%

Krasnodar U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U19 vs Krylya Sovetov U19

Krasnodar U19 beat Krylya Sovetov U19 3-2 in Youth Championship on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Akademiya FK Krasnodar Pole 2 in Krasnodar.