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Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit — Cup 2019

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
15:00
Zenit
Zenit
8/18/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 2Samara Arena
Big match
42%
Zenit
model favours
34%24%42%

Zenit are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylia Sovetov34%
×Draw24%
Zenit42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.40
Zenit
1.60

Zenit creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.88
Zenit
1.45

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.76
Zenit
0.91

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
58%
Krylia Sovetov or Zenit
76%
Draw or Zenit
66%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
15%
Zenit wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
41%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
17%
Zenit 1+ goals
80%
Zenit 2+ goals
47%
Zenit 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
44%
Zenit (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.88 + Zenit defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zenit attack 1.45 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
34%
level
24%
Zenit scores more
42%

Zenit at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zenit have scored in 12 games running
  • Zenit score first in 67% of matches
  • Zenit have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Zenit’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Zenit’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Zenit
DWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit — Match Preview

Krylia Sovetov face Zenit on August 18, 2026 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Krylia Sovetov host Zenit at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.