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Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv — Premier League 2018

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
16:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
2/27/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Samara Arena
Big match
38%
Krylia Sovetov
model favours
38%26%36%

Krylia Sovetov win just 17% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov38%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.37
Lokomotiv
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Lokomotiv
1.52

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Lokomotiv
1.43

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
64%
Krylia Sovetov or Lokomotiv
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv
62%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
40%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
51%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
38%
level
26%
Lokomotiv scores more
36%

Krylia Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
Lokomotiv
Attack-heavy
47%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy77%
10.9Shots15.2
1.39xGBiggest gap2.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Krylia SovetovLokomotiv

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Krylia Sovetov
6
Draws
2
Lokomotiv
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 70%
2–02–22–25–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Lokomotiv
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv — Match Preview

Krylia Sovetov face Lokomotiv on February 27, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Krylia Sovetov host Lokomotiv at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.