Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Khimki: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimki

9/29/2024

Premier League · Round 10Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Krylia Sovetov53%

×Draw24%

Khimki23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchKhimki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Krylia Sovetov

1.73

Khimki

1.05

Krylia Sovetov creates 65% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 61 away

1.31

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

Khimki

0.93

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

Khimki

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Khimki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

77%

Krylia Sovetov or Khimki

76%

Draw or Khimki

47%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

29%

Khimki wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

82%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

52%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

25%

Khimki 1+ goals

65%

Khimki 2+ goals

28%

Khimki 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

70%

Khimki (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Khimki away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Khimki defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Khimki attack 0.93 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

53%

level

24%

Khimki scores more

23%

Krylia Sovetov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

E. Fariña

Khimki · D

8.0

Match Events

34'

Thomas Galdames

39'

Edgardo Fariña

57'

Aleksandr Soldatenkov

63'

Álex Corredera← K. Kaplenko

71'

V. Méndez← S. Babkin

71'

V. Shitov← B. Garré

78'

B. Magomedov← Z. Bakaev

79'

A. Rudenko← R. Mirzov

83'

D. Tsypchenko← I. Oleynikov

83'

I. Dmitriev← R. Ezhov

90+4'

Dani Fernández

90+2'

I. Sadygov← A. Zabolotny

90+2'

R. Mejía← L. Vera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryliaKhimki

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots10

6Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target1

4Off Target5

5Blocked4

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

516Total Passes459

427Accurate Passes371

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0