Khimki 1–3 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Krylia Sovetov

A. Zabolotny 14'

I. Dmitriev 90+4'

I. Sergeev 75'

K. Pechenin 54'

4/13/2025

Premier League · Round 24Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki46%

×Draw25%

Krylia Sovetov29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Khimki

1.52

Krylia Sovetov

1.16

Khimki creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 105 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

1.30

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

71%

Khimki or Krylia Sovetov

75%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

54%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

23%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

78%

Khimki 2+ goals

45%

Khimki 3+ goals

20%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

69%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

32%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

61%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki scores more

46%

level

25%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

29%

Khimki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

K. Pechenin

Krylia Sovetov · D

8.3

Match Events

14'

A. Zabolotny↳ Dani Fernández

31'

Kirill Pechenin

49'

Sergey Babkin

54'

K. Pechenin

65'

R. Mirzov← I. Berkovskiy

65'

B. Amian← R. Mejía

71'

L. Gagnidze← S. Babkin

72'

V. Shitov← N. Rasskazov

75'

I. Sergeev↳ K. Pechenin

78'

P. Golubović← D. Stepanov

78'

Orinho← Dani Fernández

83'

A. Rudenko← Álex Corredera

89'

D. Tsypchenko← I. Oleynikov

89'

I. Dmitriev← A. Zinkovskiy

90'

Zelimkhan Bakaev

90'

Boni Amian

90+2'

A. Rahmanović← I. Sergeev

90+4'

I. Dmitriev↳ V. Shitov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiKrylia

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots23

3Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots23

4On Target7

4Off Target10

2Blocked6

7Inside Box15

3Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes494

287Accurate Passes411

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2