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Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
16:00
Dynamo
Dynamo
11/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Samara Arena
Big match
39%
Dynamo
model favours
35%26%39%

Dynamo score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylia Sovetov35%
×Draw26%
Dynamo39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Dynamo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.53
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.24
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
61%
Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo
74%
Draw or Dynamo
65%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
15%
Dynamo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
73%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
38%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo 1+ goals
76%
Dynamo 2+ goals
41%
Dynamo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
47%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.53 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
35%
level
26%
Dynamo scores more
39%

Dynamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dynamo have won 3 in a row
  • Dynamo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Krylia Sovetov win just 13% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Dynamo outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
Dynamo
Defensively solid
47%Possession55%
77%Pass accuracy78%
8.9ShotsBiggest gap17.0
—xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Krylia SovetovDynamo

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
4
Dynamo
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 40%
0–40–42–30–01–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Dynamo
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo — Match Preview

Krylia Sovetov face Dynamo on November 28, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.