Krylia Sovetov 3–6 Dynamo: Result & Stats | Cup

Krylia Sovetov

3 – 6

HT: 2 – 3

Dynamo

I. Gaponov 77'

T. Galdames 17'

B. Garré 13' (pen)

E. Maouhoub 82', 53', 16'

D. Makarov 51'

L. Gagnidze 27'

Y. Gladyshev 9'

10/24/2024

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Krylia Sovetov31%

×Draw22%

Dynamo47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.02

Krylia Sovetov

1.62

Dynamo

2.02

Dynamo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

1.57

creates per match

1.90

2.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.57

Dynamo

1.90

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

2.14

Dynamo

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Dynamo →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

53%

Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo

78%

Draw or Dynamo

69%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

15%

Dynamo wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

80%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

48%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

22%

Dynamo 1+ goals

87%

Dynamo 2+ goals

60%

Dynamo 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

40%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.57 + Dynamo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dynamo attack 1.90 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

31%

level

22%

Dynamo scores more

47%

Dynamo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Y. Gladyshev

13'

B. GarréPenalty

16'

17'

27'

46'

51'

53'

58'

S. Babkin← I. Gribakin

58'

K. Pechenin← T. Galdames

62'

V. Grulev← V. Okishor

62'

L. Chávez← Y. Gladyshev

64'

I. Lepskii

64'

I. Oleynikov← I. Sergeev

68'

L. Gagnidze

71'

E. Nazarenko← D. Aleksandrov

76'

P. Popov← U. Babaev

77'

I. Gaponov

78'

R. Fernández← L. Zaydenzal

78'

N. Marichal← I. Lepskiy

82'

E. Maouhoub

84'

E. Maouhoub

88'

E. Nazarenko

Krylia

Dynamo

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

Gladyshev

Ovsyannik

⚽

Gaponov

⚽

▼

Galdames

Ivaniseni

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Osinkin

46'▲R. Ezhov←▼B. Garré

58'▲S. Babkin←▼I. Gribakin

58'▲K. Pechenin←▼T. Galdames

64'▲I. Oleynikov←▼I. Sergeev

76'▲P. Popov←▼U. Babaev

Krylia Sovetov substitutes

11Ezhov6Babkin25Pechenin19Oleynikov92Popov1Lomaev4Soldatenkov15Rasskazov24Evgenyev39Frolov76Bober51Lyakhov

Manager: M. Lička

62'▲V. Grulev←▼V. Okishor

62'▲L. Chávez←▼Y. Gladyshev

71'▲E. Nazarenko←▼D. Aleksandrov

78'▲R. Fernández←▼L. Zaydenzal

78'▲N. Marichal←▼I. Lepskiy

Dynamo substitutes

20Grulev24Chávez41Nazarenko6Fernández18Marichal40Rasulov47Kudravets69Bokov61Khubulov

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 6-3 in Cup on October 24, 2024.

Goals: Y. Gladyshev (9'), B. Garré (13' pen), E. Maouhoub (16', 53', 82'), T. Galdames (17'), L. Gagnidze (27'), D. Makarov (51'), I. Gaponov (77').

The match was played at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Samara.

Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo — Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo