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Krylia Sovetov vs Chelyabinsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
2/22/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Krylia Sovetov41%
×Draw31%
Chelyabinsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.10
Chelyabinsk
0.86

Krylia Sovetov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Chelyabinsk
0.82

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Chelyabinsk
0.91

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
72%
Krylia Sovetov or Chelyabinsk
69%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
59%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
17%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
67%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
30%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
10%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
58%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
21%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
59%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chelyabinsk attack 0.82 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
41%
level
31%
Chelyabinsk scores more
28%

Krylia Sovetov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Krylia Sovetov 0–0 Chelyabinsk

Krylia Sovetov and Chelyabinsk drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.