Chelyabinsk 2–3 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Krylia Sovetov

2/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chelyabinsk31%

×Draw20%

Krylia Sovetov49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.26

Chelyabinsk

1.78

Krylia Sovetov

2.26

Krylia Sovetov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

2.63

1.89

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.44

Krylia Sovetov

2.63

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

1.89

Krylia Sovetov

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

51%

Chelyabinsk or Krylia Sovetov

80%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

69%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

15%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

83%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

53%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

26%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

89%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

66%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

39%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Krylia Sovetov attack 2.63 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

31%

level

20%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

49%

Krylia Sovetov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Chelyabinsk

Krylia

Manager: Roman Pilipchuk

Chelyabinsk substitutes

66GudkovBaytukov88Eza17N'Diaye75Zhamaletdinov5Gatin15Pushkarev7Malyarov

Manager: Magomed Adiev

Krylia Sovetov substitutes

80Kokarev39Frolov71Nedospasov24Evgenyev18Lepskii72Fernandez2Pechenin33Lysov77Akhmetov6Babkin11Rahmanovic10Khubulov91Ignatenko9Geoffrey

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Krylia Sovetov

Krylia Sovetov beat Chelyabinsk 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 17, 2026.

Chelyabinsk vs Krylia Sovetov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Krylia Sovetov