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Krupa na Vrbasu vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
4 – 0
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
10/19/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 11Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu85%
×Draw10%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.25
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.70

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 364% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 21 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.41
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
95%
Krupa na Vrbasu or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
90%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
15%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
68%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
96%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
83%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
61%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
50%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
16%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
94%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.25

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
85%
level
10%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
5%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krupa na Vrbasu 4 – 0 FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Krupa na Vrbasu beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 4-0 in 1st League - RS on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu).