FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1–2 Krupa na Vrbasu

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

1 – 2

Krupa na Vrbasu

8/17/2019

1st League - RS · RS - 2Novi Stadion Orašje (Orašje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko19%

×Draw24%

Krupa na Vrbasu57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.69

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.84

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.69

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 101% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 39 away

1.05

creates per match

1.79

1.59

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

43%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Krupa na Vrbasu

76%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

81%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

6%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

57%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

21%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

5%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

82%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

50%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

24%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.84

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

19%

level

24%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

57%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff