Krško 0–1 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Krško

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brda Dobrovo

Darius Jalinous 33'

8/31/2019

2. SNL · Round 6Štadion Matije Gubca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Krško45%

×Draw23%

Brda Dobrovo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrškoExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.41

Krško

1.74

Brda Dobrovo

1.41

Krško creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

1.82

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Krško

1.18

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Krško

1.82

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krško+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Krško or draw

69%

Krško or Brda Dobrovo

77%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

55%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+

24%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals

82%

Krško 2+ goals

52%

Krško 3+ goals

25%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

76%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

41%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)

59%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krško scores more

45%

level

23%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

31%

Krško at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krško will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Humar← A. Marinič

33'

Darius Jalinous

46'

J. Marcijuš← M. Puškarić

56'

K. Jogan← A. Musić

66'

I. Regvar← N. Karamarković

70'

M. Perše← R. Bužinel

73'

T. Mlinar← F. Srpak

Krško

Brda

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Kapušin

46'▲J. Marcijuš←▼M. Puškarić

66'▲I. Regvar←▼N. Karamarković

73'▲T. Mlinar←▼F. Srpak

Krško substitutes

MarcijušRegvarMlinarChoong-SilFortunaJurečičŠolčić

Manager: D. Peršič

22'▲J. Humar←▼A. Marinič

56'▲K. Jogan←▼A. Musić

70'▲M. Perše←▼R. Bužinel

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

HumarJoganPeršeJusufagićBužinelPetrovčič

2. SNL: Krško 0–1 Brda Dobrovo

Brda Dobrovo beat Krško 1-0 in 2. SNL on August 31, 2019.

Goals: Darius Jalinous (33').

The match was played at Štadion Matije Gubca in Krško.

Krško vs Brda Dobrovo — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Krško 0–1 Brda Dobrovo