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Brda Dobrovo vs Krško — 2. SNL 2019

Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
CANC
00:00
Krško
Krško
3/15/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 21Športni park Vipolže

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brda Dobrovo33%
×Draw25%
Krško43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brda Dobrovo
1.33
Krško
1.55

Krško creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 66 away

creates per match

Brda Dobrovo
0.86
Krško
1.05

allows per match

Brda Dobrovo
2.05
Krško
1.80

finishing

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par
Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brda Dobrovo ↓

Krško →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Brda Dobrovo or draw
57%
Brda Dobrovo or Krško
75%
Draw or Krško
67%

Winning margin

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
14%
Krško wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
74%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
38%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
15%
Krško 1+ goals
79%
Krško 2+ goals
46%
Krško 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
43%
Krško (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brda Dobrovo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brda Dobrovo attack 0.86 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Krško attack 1.05 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brda Dobrovo scores more
33%
level
25%
Krško scores more
43%

Krško at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krško will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brda Dobrovo face Krško (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Brda Dobrovo hosting Krško. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brda Dobrovo host Krško at Športni park Vipolže.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.