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Krk vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
9/23/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 6Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk54%
×Draw22%
Jadran Poreč23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.90
Jadran Poreč
1.16

Krk creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krk or draw
77%
Krk or Jadran Poreč
78%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
46%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
31%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
85%
Krk 2+ goals
56%
Krk 3+ goals
29%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
69%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
32%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
70%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Krk scores more
54%
level
22%
Jadran Poreč scores more
23%

Krk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Krk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Jadran Poreč

Krk beat Jadran Poreč 1-0 in Second NL on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.