Jadran Poreč 2–0 Krk: Result & Stats | Second NL

Jadran Poreč

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Krk

3/30/2024

Second NL · Round 21Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jadran Poreč47%

×Draw26%

Krk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran PorečExpected goals in this matchKrk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Jadran Poreč

1.52

Krk

1.09

Jadran Poreč creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

1.49

creates per match

0.63

1.56

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Jadran Poreč

1.49

Krk

0.63

allows per match

Jadran Poreč

1.56

Krk

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Krk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw

73%

Jadran Poreč or Krk

74%

Draw or Krk

53%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

24%

Krk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

78%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

45%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

20%

Krk 1+ goals

66%

Krk 2+ goals

30%

Krk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

63%

Krk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Krk away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Krk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Krk attack 0.63 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more

47%

level

26%

Krk scores more

27%

Jadran Poreč at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff