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Krk vs Grobničan Čavle — League #213 2026

Krk
Krk
FT
0 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
5/21/2022League #213League #213 · West - 25SRC Josip Uravić Pepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krk30%
×Draw24%
Grobničan Čavle47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.33
Grobničan Čavle
1.73

Grobničan Čavle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Krk
1.00
Grobničan Čavle
1.67

allows per match

Krk
1.80
Grobničan Čavle
1.67

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krk or draw
53%
Krk or Grobničan Čavle
76%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
70%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
13%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
74%
Krk 2+ goals
38%
Krk 3+ goals
15%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
82%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
52%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
39%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.00 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.67 + Krk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krk scores more
30%
level
24%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
47%

Grobničan Čavle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Grobničan Čavle

Grobničan Čavle beat Krk 1-0 in League #213 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at SRC Josip Uravić Pepi in Krk.