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Grobničan Čavle vs Krk — League #213 2026

Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
FT
5 – 0
Krk
Krk
5/8/2021League #213League #213 · West - 22Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Grobničan Čavle94%
×Draw5%
Krk1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobničan Čavle
3.29
Krk
0.17

Grobničan Čavle creates 1835% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle
4.25
Krk
0.33

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle
0.00
Krk
2.33

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par
Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Krk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–020%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (20%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw
99%
Grobničan Čavle or Krk
95%
Draw or Krk
6%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
80%
Krk wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
96%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
83%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
62%
Krk 1+ goals
16%
Krk 2+ goals
1%
Krk 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
99%
Krk (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 4.25, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Krk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 4.25 + Krk defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.29

Krk attack 0.33 + Grobničan Čavle defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more
94%
level
5%
Krk scores more
1%

Grobničan Čavle at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #213: Grobničan Čavle 5–0 Krk

Grobničan Čavle beat Krk 5-0 in League #213 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba in Čavle.