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Križevci vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Križevci
Križevci
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
11/25/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Križevci47%
×Draw26%
Karlovac 191927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Križevci
1.45
Karlovac 1919
1.03

Križevci creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 31 away

creates per match

Križevci
1.87
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Križevci
0.80
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Križevci+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Križevci ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Križevci or draw
73%
Križevci or Karlovac 1919
74%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
53%

Winning margin

Križevci wins by 2+
23%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Križevci 1+ goals
77%
Križevci 2+ goals
42%
Križevci 3+ goals
18%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
64%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
28%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Križevci (draw refunded)
64%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Križevci at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Križevci attack 1.87 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.45

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Križevci defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Križevci scores more
47%
level
26%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
27%

Križevci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Križevci 0–1 Karlovac 1919

Karlovac 1919 beat Križevci 1-0 in Second NL on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Križevci.