Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karlovac 1919 vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Križevci
Križevci
6/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 30Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191952%
×Draw25%
Križevci24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovac 1919
1.61
Križevci
1.00

Karlovac 1919 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

Karlovac 1919
1.87
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Karlovac 1919
0.74
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw
76%
Karlovac 1919 or Križevci
75%
Draw or Križevci
48%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
27%
Križevci wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
80%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
48%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
22%
Križevci 1+ goals
63%
Križevci 2+ goals
26%
Križevci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
69%
Križevci (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Križevci attack 1.26 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more
52%
level
25%
Križevci scores more
24%

Karlovac 1919 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Karlovac 1919 2–0 Križevci

Karlovac 1919 beat Križevci 2-0 in Second NL on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.