Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Križevci vs Bjelovar — Second NL 2022

Križevci
Križevci
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bjelovar
Bjelovar
11/16/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Križevci53%
×Draw24%
Bjelovar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Križevci
1.67
Bjelovar
0.99

Križevci creates 69% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

creates per match

Križevci
1.87
Bjelovar
1.19

allows per match

Križevci
0.80
Bjelovar
1.47

finishing

Križevci+0.00on par
Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Križevci ↓

Bjelovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Križevci or draw
78%
Križevci or Bjelovar
76%
Draw or Bjelovar
47%

Winning margin

Križevci wins by 2+
29%
Bjelovar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Križevci 1+ goals
81%
Križevci 2+ goals
50%
Križevci 3+ goals
23%
Bjelovar 1+ goals
63%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
26%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Križevci (draw refunded)
70%
Bjelovar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Križevci at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Križevci attack 1.87 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Križevci defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Križevci scores more
53%
level
24%
Bjelovar scores more
22%

Križevci at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Križevci vs Bjelovar

Bjelovar beat Križevci 2-0 in Second NL on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Križevci.