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Bjelovar vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Križevci
Križevci
5/17/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bjelovar45%
×Draw25%
Križevci30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.61
Križevci
1.27

Bjelovar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
70%
Bjelovar or Križevci
75%
Draw or Križevci
55%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
23%
Križevci wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
80%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
48%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
22%
Križevci 1+ goals
72%
Križevci 2+ goals
36%
Križevci 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
60%
Križevci (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Križevci attack 1.26 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bjelovar scores more
45%
level
25%
Križevci scores more
30%

Bjelovar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs Križevci

Bjelovar beat Križevci 2-1 in Second NL on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.