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Kristiansund II vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
10/25/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 26Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristiansund II28%
×Draw24%
Aalesund II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.25
Aalesund II
1.73

Aalesund II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
0.54
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Kristiansund II
2.08
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
51%
Kristiansund II or Aalesund II
76%
Draw or Aalesund II
72%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
11%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
71%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
36%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
13%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
52%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
36%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 0.54 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Kristiansund II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
28%
level
24%
Aalesund II scores more
49%

Aalesund II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Kristiansund II 1–1 Aalesund II

Kristiansund II and Aalesund II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.