Aalesund II 3–2 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Aalesund II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Kristiansund II

6/14/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 10Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II63%

×Draw18%

Kristiansund II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aalesund IIExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.41

Aalesund II

2.65

Kristiansund II

1.41

Aalesund II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

2.84

creates per match

1.00

1.81

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Aalesund II

2.84

Kristiansund II

1.00

allows per match

Aalesund II

1.81

Kristiansund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw

81%

Aalesund II or Kristiansund II

82%

Draw or Kristiansund II

37%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+

42%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals

93%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

74%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

48%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

76%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

41%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

77%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.65

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Aalesund II scores more

63%

level

18%

Kristiansund II scores more

19%

Aalesund II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff