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Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haugesund
Haugesund
R. Corlu 71'
M. Isah 17'
9/21/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Kristiansund BK45%
×Draw23%
Haugesund32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.75
Haugesund
1.45

Kristiansund BK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.29
Haugesund
1.25

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.65
Haugesund
2.20

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par
Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
68%
Kristiansund BK or Haugesund
77%
Draw or Haugesund
55%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
24%
Haugesund wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
83%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
52%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
25%
Haugesund 1+ goals
77%
Haugesund 2+ goals
42%
Haugesund 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
58%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Haugesund attack 1.25 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
45%
level
23%
Haugesund scores more
32%

Kristiansund BK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
H. SletsjoeKristiansund BKKristiansund BK · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
M. Isah↳ H. Sletsjoe
46'
C. Niyukuri← M. Bjornbak
46'
P. Hannola← T. Nyhammer
46'
M. Hope← I. Camara
57'
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug
60'
B. Leite← I. Kukleci
65'
Sander Hestetun Kilen
68'
R. Corlu← N. Odegard
68'
A. Ndour← M. Isah
71'
R. Corlu↳ W. Igor
72'
E. Rohd← S. Diarra
78'
Mikkel Rakneberg
82'
S. Skeide← H. Sletsjoe
82'
L. Alvheim← S. Kilen
82'
A. Ronning← D. Tufekcic

Possession

51%Kristiansund

Shots

21Kristiansund

Pass accuracy

50%Kristiansund

Statistics

KristiansundHaugesund
Overview
51%Possession49%
21Total Shots5
2.60Expected Goals (xG)0.69
3Corners1
10Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots5
7On Target3
7Off Target0
7Blocked2
15Inside Box3
6Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
531Total Passes513
466Accurate Passes446
88%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK 2–0 Haugesund

Kristiansund BK beat Haugesund 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Isah (17'), R. Corlu (71').

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 5.

The match was played at Kristiansund Stadion in Kristiansund.