Kristiansund BK 2–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Haugesund

J. Isaksen 46'

K. Lien 15'

J. Eskesen 75'

S. Innvær 38'

9/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 21Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Kristiansund BK45%

×Draw23%

Haugesund32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.45

Kristiansund BK

1.75

Haugesund

1.45

Kristiansund BK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

1.25

1.65

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.29

Haugesund

1.25

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.65

Haugesund

2.20

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

68%

Kristiansund BK or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

55%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

24%

Haugesund wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

83%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

52%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

25%

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

42%

Haugesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

58%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Haugesund attack 1.25 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

45%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

32%

Kristiansund BK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Rakneberg

Kristiansund BK · D

7.6

Match Events

15'

K. Lien↳ D. Tufekcic

34'

Sory Diarra

38'

S. Innvær

46'

J. Isaksen↳ M. Rakneberg

58'

J. Eskesen← S. Diarra

58'

Bruno Leite← P. Bizoza

58'

M. Sauer← S. Innvær

65'

T. Nyhammer← M. Konradsen

66'

Dan Peter Ulvestad

72'

Mathias Sauer

72'

H. Mikaelsson← O. Sivertsen

73'

Julius Eskesen

73'

W. Igor← D. Tufekcic

75'

J. Eskesen↳ T. Nyhammer

80'

I. Jeličić← H. Sjåtil

85'

Mikkel Rakneberg

88'

A. Hopmark← J. Isaksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundHaugesund

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots14

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.44

2Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target3

7Off Target8

1Blocked3

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

391Total Passes506

320Accurate Passes440

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1