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Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
CANC
00:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
7/31/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Kristiansund BK48%
×Draw23%
Haugesund29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.81
Haugesund
1.35

Kristiansund BK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.27
Haugesund
1.07

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.62
Haugesund
2.36

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par
Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
71%
Kristiansund BK or Haugesund
77%
Draw or Haugesund
52%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
26%
Haugesund wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
84%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
54%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
27%
Haugesund 1+ goals
74%
Haugesund 2+ goals
39%
Haugesund 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
63%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.27 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
48%
level
23%
Haugesund scores more
29%

Kristiansund BK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kristiansund BK host Haugesund

July 31, 2021: Kristiansund BK take on Haugesund in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kristiansund BK host Haugesund at Kristiansund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.