Kristiansund BK 2–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Haugesund

L. Kalludra 74'

F. Kastrati 58'

V. Skjerve 38'

9/23/2018

Eliteserien · Round 23Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Kristiansund BK48%

×Draw23%

Haugesund29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.35

Kristiansund BK

1.81

Haugesund

1.35

Kristiansund BK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.62

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.27

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.62

Haugesund

2.36

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.07on par

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

71%

Kristiansund BK or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

52%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

26%

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

84%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

54%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

27%

Haugesund 1+ goals

74%

Haugesund 2+ goals

39%

Haugesund 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

63%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.27 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

48%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

29%

Kristiansund BK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

B. Sørmo

Kristiansund BK · D

7.6

Match Events

38'

V. Skjerve↳ F. Knudsen

48'

Flamur Kastrati

52'

Aliou Coly

58'

F. Kastrati

68'

I. Wadji← T. Kallevåg

73'

Bruno Leite

74'

L. Kalludra

78'

I. Koné← Bruno Leite

82'

S. Sørli← T. Gjertsen

85'

B. Lepistu← L. Kalludra

88'

S. Alexandersson← F. Kastrati

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundHaugesund

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots10

7Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target3

6Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

367Total Passes340

260Accurate Passes232

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1