Kristianstad W 1–0 Eskilstuna United W

Kristianstad W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eskilstuna United W

H. Mace 66'

9/13/2020

Damallsvenskan · Round 15Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kristianstad W51%

×Draw24%

Eskilstuna United W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristianstad WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.10

Kristianstad W

1.67

Eskilstuna United W

1.10

Kristianstad W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 40 away

2.01

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kristianstad W

2.01

Eskilstuna United W

1.07

allows per match

Kristianstad W

1.14

Eskilstuna United W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw

75%

Kristianstad W or Eskilstuna United W

76%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

49%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

27%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

81%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

50%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

23%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

67%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

30%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

67%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.07 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kristianstad W scores more

51%

level

24%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

25%

Kristianstad W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

H. Ayinde

61'

E. Rombing← J. Tunturi

66'

H. Mace

76'

F. Rogic← K. Collin

79'

A. Oskarsson

84'

M. Bodin← S. Guðmundsdóttir

88'

A. Welin← T. Åsland

90+1'

K. Tornkvist

90+4'

J. Rantala← T. Persson

Kristianstad

Eskilstuna

11

15

20

5

25

18

22

14

▼

Tunturi

6

Nildén

9

▼

10

1

3

9

12

8

6

7

▼

Åsland

25

Summanen

14

▼

Persson

2

▼

Guðmundsd

21

⚽

Mace

Manager: E. Gunnarsdottir

84'▲M. Bodin←▼S. Guðmundsdóttir

88'▲A. Welin←▼T. Åsland

90+4'▲J. Rantala←▼T. Persson

Kristianstad W substitutes

22Bodin10Welin18Rantala11Hagman13Jaser27Harrysson33Loeck

Manager: M. Karlsson

61'▲E. Rombing←▼J. Tunturi

76'▲F. Rogic←▼K. Collin

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

7Rombing16Rogic1Lundberg8Vickius19Renmark23Eriksson29Plan