Eskilstuna United W 1–1 Kristianstad W

Eskilstuna United W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kristianstad W

F. Rogic 41'

S. Jónsdóttir 12'

4/18/2021

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eskilstuna United W36%

×Draw25%

Kristianstad W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.45

Eskilstuna United W

1.39

Kristianstad W

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 79 away

1.39

creates per match

1.78

1.12

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.39

Kristianstad W

1.78

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.12

Kristianstad W

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

61%

Eskilstuna United W or Kristianstad W

75%

Draw or Kristianstad W

64%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

17%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

75%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

40%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

16%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

77%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

42%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

48%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

36%

level

25%

Kristianstad W scores more

39%

Kristianstad W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Jónsdóttir

41'

F. Rogic

58'

A. Edgren← J. Rantala

71'

N. Okobi-Okeoghene← A. Nildén

72'

A. Welin

80'

F. Andersson

82'

E. Stenevik← F. Andersson

88'

M. Plan

Eskilstuna

Kristianstad

1

20

9

12

27

8

10

7

25

18

▼

Rantala

23

⚽

3

15

20

6

▼

Nildén

29

Plan

4

Östlund

22

▼

Andersson

14

Eckhoff

13

Saving

16

⚽

Rogic

10

Kullashi

Manager: M. Karlsson

71'▲N. Okobi-Okeoghene←▼A. Nildén

82'▲E. Stenevik←▼F. Andersson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

25Okobi-Okeoghene5Stenevik1Lundberg7Rombing8Vickius19Renmark23Eriksson

Manager: E. Gunnarsdottir

58'▲A. Edgren←▼J. Rantala

Kristianstad W substitutes

6Edgren2Atladottir5Sjöström13Petrović14Persson22Bodin33Loeck

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs Kristianstad W

Eskilstuna United W and Kristianstad W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 18, 2021.

Goals: S. Jónsdóttir (12'), F. Rogic (41').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

Eskilstuna United W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs Kristianstad W