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Krems vs Ardagger — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Krems
Krems
CANC
14:30
Ardagger
Ardagger
4/11/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 21Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Krems57%
×Draw22%
Ardagger21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krems
1.97
Ardagger
1.10

Krems creates 79% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

creates per match

Krems
2.83
Ardagger
1.24

allows per match

Krems
0.97
Ardagger
1.11

finishing

Krems+0.00on par
Ardagger+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

Ardagger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krems or draw
79%
Krems or Ardagger
78%
Draw or Ardagger
43%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+
34%
Ardagger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals
86%
Krems 2+ goals
58%
Krems 3+ goals
31%
Ardagger 1+ goals
67%
Ardagger 2+ goals
30%
Ardagger 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)
73%
Ardagger (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Ardagger away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 2.83 + Ardagger defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.97

Ardagger attack 1.24 + Krems defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Krems scores more
57%
level
22%
Ardagger scores more
21%

Krems at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krems vs Ardagger — Match Preview

Krems face Ardagger on April 11, 2021 in this Landesliga - Niederosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Krems host Ardagger at Sepp-Doll-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.