Ardagger 2–0 Krems: Result & Stats

Ardagger

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Krems

10/6/2023

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 11Sportplatz SCU Ardagger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ardagger43%

×Draw27%

Krems30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArdaggerExpected goals in this matchKrems

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Ardagger

1.33

Krems

1.07

Ardagger creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

1.00

creates per match

1.28

0.87

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ardagger

1.00

Krems

1.28

allows per match

Ardagger

0.87

Krems

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ardagger+0.00on par

Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardagger ↓

Krems →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ardagger or draw

70%

Ardagger or Krems

73%

Draw or Krems

57%

Winning margin

Ardagger wins by 2+

20%

Krems wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ardagger 1+ goals

74%

Ardagger 2+ goals

38%

Ardagger 3+ goals

15%

Krems 1+ goals

66%

Krems 2+ goals

29%

Krems 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ardagger (draw refunded)

59%

Krems (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardagger at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardagger attack 1.00 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Krems attack 1.28 + Ardagger defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ardagger scores more

43%

level

27%

Krems scores more

30%

Ardagger at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ardagger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff