Kremin' 1–0 Khust City: Result & Stats

Kremin'

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khust City

D. Sydorenko 68'

5/19/2024

Persha Liga · Relegation Round - 9Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kremin'42%

×Draw26%

Khust City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kremin'Expected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.24

Kremin'

1.45

Khust City

1.24

Kremin' creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 18 away

1.01

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Kremin'

1.01

Khust City

1.06

allows per match

Kremin'

1.42

Khust City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kremin'+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kremin' or draw

68%

Kremin' or Khust City

74%

Draw or Khust City

58%

Winning margin

Kremin' wins by 2+

20%

Khust City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kremin' 1+ goals

77%

Kremin' 2+ goals

42%

Kremin' 3+ goals

18%

Khust City 1+ goals

71%

Khust City 2+ goals

35%

Khust City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kremin' (draw refunded)

56%

Khust City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 76 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' attack 1.01 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Khust City attack 1.06 + Kremin' defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kremin' scores more

42%

level

26%

Khust City scores more

32%

Kremin' at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kremin' will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

I. Stankovych

31'

Y. Dudnyk

35'

V. Ivanov

46'

N. Prykhodko← M. Vadovskyi

46'

V. Chaban← V. Borysenko

59'

M. Trofymiuk← A. Hloba

66'

D. Dyianchuk← V. Shevchuk

68'

D. Sydorenko

75'

D. Kurylets← B. Pavlych

75'

M. Tsvyk← I. Stankovych

79'

M. Obamina

Kremin'

Khust

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Klymovskyi

59'▲M. Trofymiuk←▼A. Hloba

Kremin' substitutes

TrofymiukMatusTovkachUmanetsPasternakDykhtiarukZhdanovychRokotianskyiMolko

Manager: V. Tsytkin

46'▲N. Prykhodko←▼M. Vadovskyi

46'▲V. Chaban←▼V. Borysenko

66'▲D. Dyianchuk←▼V. Shevchuk

75'▲D. Kurylets←▼B. Pavlych

75'▲M. Tsvyk←▼I. Stankovych

Khust City substitutes

PrykhodkoChabanDyianchukKuryletsTsvykLevchenkoLiedniev

Persha Liga: Kremin' 1–0 Khust City

Kremin' beat Khust City 1-0 in Persha Liga on May 19, 2024.

Goals: D. Sydorenko (68').

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.

Kremin' vs Khust City — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Kremin' 1–0 Khust City