Khust City 1–0 Kremin': Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kremin'

D. Dyianchuk 78'

4/14/2024

Persha Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City48%

×Draw23%

Kremin'29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchKremin'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.34

Khust City

1.77

Kremin'

1.34

Khust City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.29

creates per match

0.87

1.82

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Khust City

1.29

Kremin'

0.87

allows per match

Khust City

1.82

Kremin'

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Kremin' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

71%

Khust City or Kremin'

77%

Draw or Kremin'

52%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

26%

Kremin' wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

83%

Khust City 2+ goals

53%

Khust City 3+ goals

26%

Kremin' 1+ goals

74%

Kremin' 2+ goals

39%

Kremin' 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

62%

Kremin' (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.26 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Kremin' defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kremin' attack 0.87 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khust City scores more

48%

level

23%

Kremin' scores more

29%

Khust City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Arkusha

46'

V. Chaban← D. Kurylets

46'

V. Vasylynets← I. Stankovych

48'

K. Kolchin

59'

D. Dyianchuk← V. Shevchuk

59'

V. Harnaha← V. Borysenko

63'

M. Trofymiuk← I. Kuts

64'

A. Umanets← M. Obamina

75'

D. Sydorenko← A. Tovkach

75'

S. Rokotianskyi← A. Hloba

76'

M. Tsvyk← N. Prykhodko

78'

78'

81'

84'

89'

Khust

Kremin'

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Tsytkin

46'▲V. Chaban←▼D. Kurylets

46'▲V. Vasylynets←▼I. Stankovych

59'▲D. Dyianchuk←▼V. Shevchuk

59'▲V. Harnaha←▼V. Borysenko

76'▲M. Tsvyk←▼N. Prykhodko

Khust City substitutes

ChabanVasylynetsDyianchukHarnahaTsvykVadovskyiYankoLiednievHromenkoIvanovMariiRiabenko

Manager: I. Klymovskyi

63'▲M. Trofymiuk←▼I. Kuts

64'▲A. Umanets←▼M. Obamina

75'▲D. Sydorenko←▼A. Tovkach

75'▲S. Rokotianskyi←▼A. Hloba

Kremin' substitutes

TrofymiukUmanetsSydorenkoRokotianskyiPasternakDykhtiarukOksenenko

Match Recap: Khust City vs Kremin'

Khust City beat Kremin' 1-0 in Persha Liga on April 14, 2024.

Goals: D. Dyianchuk (78').

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.

Khust City vs Kremin' — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Khust City vs Kremin'