Kremin' 0–1 Alians Lypova Dolyna: Result & Stats

Kremin'

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alians Lypova Dolyna

9/27/2021

Persha Liga · Round 10Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kremin'28%

×Draw26%

Alians Lypova Dolyna46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kremin'Expected goals in this matchAlians Lypova Dolyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.47

Kremin'

1.08

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.47

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 25 away

1.01

creates per match

1.52

1.42

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Kremin'

1.01

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.52

allows per match

Kremin'

1.42

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kremin'+0.00on par

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kremin' or draw

54%

Kremin' or Alians Lypova Dolyna

74%

Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna

72%

Winning margin

Kremin' wins by 2+

11%

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kremin' 1+ goals

66%

Kremin' 2+ goals

29%

Kremin' 3+ goals

10%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

77%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

43%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kremin' (draw refunded)

38%

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 76 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' attack 1.01 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Kremin' defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kremin' scores more

28%

level

26%

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

46%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff