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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Kremin' — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
CANC
14:00
Kremin'
Kremin'
4/16/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 25Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna61%
×Draw21%
Kremin'17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.97
Kremin'
0.94

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 110% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 78 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
Kremin'
0.87

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
Kremin'
2.26

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Kremin' →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
83%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Kremin'
79%
Draw or Kremin'
39%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
37%
Kremin' wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
86%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
58%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
31%
Kremin' 1+ goals
61%
Kremin' 2+ goals
24%
Kremin' 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
78%
Kremin' (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.26 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Kremin' defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.97

Kremin' attack 0.87 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
61%
level
21%
Kremin' scores more
17%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alians Lypova Dolyna host Kremin'

April 16, 2022: Alians Lypova Dolyna take on Kremin' in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alians Lypova Dolyna host Kremin' at Stadion Yuvilejnyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.