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Kremin' II vs Khust City — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kremin' II
Kremin' II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Khust City
Khust City
9/22/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kremin' II18%
×Draw24%
Khust City58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kremin' II
0.82
Khust City
1.69

Khust City creates 106% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kremin' II
0.52
Khust City
1.33

allows per match

Kremin' II
2.04
Khust City
1.11

finishing

Kremin' II+0.00on par
Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' II ↓

Khust City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kremin' II or draw
42%
Kremin' II or Khust City
76%
Draw or Khust City
82%

Winning margin

Kremin' II wins by 2+
6%
Khust City wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kremin' II 1+ goals
56%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
20%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
5%
Khust City 1+ goals
82%
Khust City 2+ goals
50%
Khust City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kremin' II (draw refunded)
24%
Khust City (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' II at home — creates 0.52, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' II attack 0.52 + Khust City defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Khust City attack 1.33 + Kremin' II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kremin' II scores more
18%
level
24%
Khust City scores more
58%

Khust City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Kremin' II 0–1 Khust City

Khust City beat Kremin' II 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 22, 2022.

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.