Khust City 4–0 Kremin' II: Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kremin' II

V. Lutsiv 66', 56', 54'

P. Lutsiv 2' (pen)

4/21/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 13Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khust City84%

×Draw11%

Kremin' II4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchKremin' II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.48

Khust City

2.77

Kremin' II

0.48

Khust City creates 477% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

2.50

creates per match

0.33

0.63

allows per match

3.05

creates per match

Khust City

2.50

Kremin' II

0.33

allows per match

Khust City

0.63

Kremin' II

3.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Kremin' II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Kremin' II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

96%

Khust City or Kremin' II

89%

Draw or Kremin' II

16%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

64%

Kremin' II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

94%

Khust City 2+ goals

76%

Khust City 3+ goals

51%

Kremin' II 1+ goals

38%

Kremin' II 2+ goals

8%

Kremin' II 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

95%

Kremin' II (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Kremin' II away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 2.50 + Kremin' II defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.77

Kremin' II attack 0.33 + Khust City defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Khust City scores more

84%

level

11%

Kremin' II scores more

4%

Khust City at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

P. LutsivPenalty

46'

V. Pylypenko← K. Pigarev

54'

V. Lutsiv

56'

V. Lutsiv

60'

M. Flyashko← V. Borysenko

60'

K. Kolchin← I. Vagin

62'

I. Zaychenko← V. Kurylo

66'

V. Lutsiv

73'

I. Bodnaruk← N. Prykhodko

73'

M. Klepko← D. Ulyanko

80'

Y. Buchok← A. Belimenko

80'

I. Povkhan← M. Pylyp

82'

V. Kuplivanchuk← N. Gontar

Khust

Kremin'

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Tsytkin

60'▲M. Flyashko←▼V. Borysenko

60'▲K. Kolchin←▼I. Vagin

73'▲I. Bodnaruk←▼N. Prykhodko

80'▲Y. Buchok←▼A. Belimenko

80'▲I. Povkhan←▼M. Pylyp

Khust City substitutes

FlyashkoKolchinBodnarukBuchokPovkhan

Manager: Y. Zdyrko

46'▲V. Pylypenko←▼K. Pigarev

62'▲I. Zaychenko←▼V. Kurylo

73'▲M. Klepko←▼D. Ulyanko

82'▲V. Kuplivanchuk←▼N. Gontar

Kremin' II substitutes

PylypenkoZaychenkoKlepkoKuplivanchuk