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Kray vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
5/18/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 39KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray31%
×Draw22%
KFC Uerdingen 0548%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.56
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.98

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

Kray
2.44
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kray or draw
52%
Kray or KFC Uerdingen 05
78%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
69%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
14%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
79%
Kray 2+ goals
46%
Kray 3+ goals
21%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
86%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
59%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
39%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kray scores more
31%
level
22%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
48%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kray 3–3 KFC Uerdingen 05

Kray and KFC Uerdingen 05 drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at KrayArena in Essen.