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KFC Uerdingen 05 vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kray
Kray
11/11/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0563%
×Draw19%
Kray18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFC Uerdingen 05
2.33
Kray
1.15

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05
2.19
Kray
1.00

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05
1.30
Kray
2.48

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw
82%
KFC Uerdingen 05 or Kray
81%
Draw or Kray
37%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
41%
Kray wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
90%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
67%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
41%
Kray 1+ goals
68%
Kray 2+ goals
32%
Kray 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
78%
Kray (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.19 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kray attack 1.00 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
63%
level
19%
Kray scores more
18%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: KFC Uerdingen 05 4–0 Kray

KFC Uerdingen 05 beat Kray 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Grotenburg-Stadion in Krefeld.