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Kray vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
14:00
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
3/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray31%
×Draw21%
Germania Ratingen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.70
Germania Ratingen
2.15

Germania Ratingen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kray or draw
52%
Kray or Germania Ratingen
79%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
69%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
15%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
82%
Kray 2+ goals
51%
Kray 3+ goals
24%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
88%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
63%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
39%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kray scores more
31%
level
21%
Germania Ratingen scores more
48%

Germania Ratingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray face Germania Ratingen (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Kray hosting Germania Ratingen. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kray host Germania Ratingen at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.