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Germania Ratingen vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kray
Kray
9/18/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Germania Ratingen65%
×Draw19%
Kray17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.35
Kray
1.11

Germania Ratingen creates 112% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 40 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
Kray
1.00

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
Kray
2.48

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
83%
Germania Ratingen or Kray
81%
Draw or Kray
35%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
42%
Kray wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
90%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
68%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
41%
Kray 1+ goals
67%
Kray 2+ goals
30%
Kray 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
79%
Kray (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kray attack 1.00 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
65%
level
19%
Kray scores more
17%

Germania Ratingen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Ratingen vs Kray

Kray beat Germania Ratingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1 in Ratingen.