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Krasnodar III vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Essentuki
Essentuki
6/9/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III62%
×Draw20%
Essentuki18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar III
2.21
Essentuki
1.12

Krasnodar III creates 97% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Krasnodar III
1.38
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Krasnodar III
1.88
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw
82%
Krasnodar III or Essentuki
80%
Draw or Essentuki
38%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+
39%
Essentuki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals
89%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
65%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
38%
Essentuki 1+ goals
67%
Essentuki 2+ goals
31%
Essentuki 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
77%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.21

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krasnodar III scores more
62%
level
20%
Essentuki scores more
18%

Krasnodar III at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krasnodar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Krasnodar III 3–0 Essentuki

Krasnodar III beat Essentuki 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.