Essentuki 1–3 Krasnodar III: Result & Stats

Essentuki

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Krasnodar III

3/7/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Essentuki22%

×Draw21%

Krasnodar III57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EssentukiExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.09

Essentuki

1.23

Krasnodar III

2.09

Krasnodar III creates 70% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

0.77

creates per match

1.13

3.05

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Essentuki

0.77

Krasnodar III

1.13

allows per match

Essentuki

3.05

Krasnodar III

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Essentuki+0.00on par

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essentuki ↓

Krasnodar III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Essentuki or draw

43%

Essentuki or Krasnodar III

79%

Draw or Krasnodar III

78%

Winning margin

Essentuki wins by 2+

9%

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Essentuki 1+ goals

71%

Essentuki 2+ goals

35%

Essentuki 3+ goals

13%

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

88%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

62%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Essentuki (draw refunded)

28%

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essentuki at home — creates 0.77, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essentuki attack 0.77 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.23

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Essentuki scores more

22%

level

21%

Krasnodar III scores more

57%

Krasnodar III at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krasnodar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff