Krasnodar III 1–3 Dinamo Stavropol: Result & Stats

Krasnodar III

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Stavropol

9/7/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III34%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Stavropol41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar IIIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.55

Krasnodar III

1.38

Dinamo Stavropol

1.55

Dinamo Stavropol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 92 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.88

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Krasnodar III

1.38

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Krasnodar III

1.88

Dinamo Stavropol

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw

59%

Krasnodar III or Dinamo Stavropol

75%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

66%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

75%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

40%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

46%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

45%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krasnodar III scores more

34%

level

25%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

41%

Dinamo Stavropol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff