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Dinamo Stavropol vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
5/25/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol45%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar III29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.54
Krasnodar III
1.19

Dinamo Stavropol creates 29% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
71%
Dinamo Stavropol or Krasnodar III
75%
Draw or Krasnodar III
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
23%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
20%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
70%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
33%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
61%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
45%
level
25%
Krasnodar III scores more
29%

Dinamo Stavropol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 3–1 Krasnodar III

Dinamo Stavropol beat Krasnodar III 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.