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Krasnodar III vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
4/4/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III28%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Makhachkala47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar III
1.16
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.58

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 36% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Krasnodar III
1.38
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Krasnodar III
1.88
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw
53%
Krasnodar III or Dinamo Makhachkala
75%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
72%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals
69%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
32%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
37%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krasnodar III scores more
28%
level
25%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
47%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Krasnodar III 0–1 Dinamo Makhachkala

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krasnodar III 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.