Dinamo Makhachkala 4–2 Krasnodar III

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Krasnodar III

9/13/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala60%

×Draw22%

Krasnodar III18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.94

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.93

Krasnodar III

0.94

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 105% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

2.16

creates per match

1.13

0.75

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

2.16

Krasnodar III

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.75

Krasnodar III

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Krasnodar III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

82%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Krasnodar III

78%

Draw or Krasnodar III

40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

36%

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

57%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

30%

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

61%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

24%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

77%

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.93

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

60%

level

22%

Krasnodar III scores more

18%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff