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Krasnodar 2 vs Rotor Volgograd — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/8/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krasnodar 247%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.39
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

Krasnodar 2 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.67
Rotor Volgograd
0.78

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.11
Rotor Volgograd
1.11

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
74%
Krasnodar 2 or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
53%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
23%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
16%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
61%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
25%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
65%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.67 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.78 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
47%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
26%

Krasnodar 2 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Rotor Volgograd

Krasnodar 2 beat Rotor Volgograd 3-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.