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Krasnodar 2 vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
9/29/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Krasnodar 236%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.15
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
64%
Krasnodar 2 or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
64%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
15%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
68%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
32%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
68%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
32%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
50%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
36%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
36%

Krasnodar 2 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Rotor Volgograd

Krasnodar 2 and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.